BY RAMESH JAURA
IDN-InDepthNews Service
BERLIN (IDN) "What we're talking about is a profound change of industrial civilisation. It would be surprising if there weren't stumbling blocks," said Sweden's lead climate negotiator and chairman of the EU working group, Anders Turesson, wrapping up the latest round of informal negotiations in Bonn.
Turesson hit the nail on the head. But a significant point at issue is whether the industrialised nations would succeed in preserving as some sort of a 'divine right' their domineering role in a new industrial civilisation, and manage to retain by means fair or foul their comparative advantage over emerging economies and all other developing countries.
At August 10-14 informal negotiations in Bonn -- as on previous occasions in run up to the UN climate change conference this December in Copenhagen -- emerging nations and other developing countries left no doubt that they would not surrender to any diplomatic coercion.
Echoing the sentiments of those countries, China accused rich industrial nations on August 13 of increasing pressure on the poor to do more to combat global warming while shirking their own responsibility to lead.
"There has been a general feeling of unhappiness about the level of efforts that (developed nations) say they will take," China's climate ambassador Yu Qingtai said in a news agency interview on the sidelines of talks in Bonn.
"What is even more worrying is a continuation and even a strengthening of the tendency of trying to shift the burden to the developing countries," he said. "That must change."
'GLOBAL VILLAGE'
Earlier in a briefing for Chinese and foreign media on August 5 in Beijing, Yu said: "There have emerged many global issues today, but . . . the issue of climate change can best reflect the concept of 'global village' and the need of mankind as a whole for pulling together in times of trouble. Faced with global warming, no country can stay aloof or say it is totally free from the negative impact."
The only way out for the international community was sincere cooperation. "Therefore, for the common interest of mankind, the Copenhagen conference must be successful and lay down a solid foundation for the international cooperation to be conducted after 2010."
Yu said the success of the Copenhagen conference will depend on efforts made in three aspects: First, to confirm the substantial greenhouse gas emission targets for the developed countries during the Kyoto Protocol's second commitment period (2012-2016) and ensure those developed countries which have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol fulfil emission reduction commitments comparable to other developed countries.
Second, effective institutional arrangements to ensure that the developed countries provide the developing ones with support and help in terms of funds, technology transfer and capacity building, as envisaged in the Bali Road Map and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Third, under the framework of sustainable development, the developing countries, with support and help in terms of funds, technology transfer and capacity building, take appropriate mitigation actions based on their own national conditions respectively.
COMMON BUT DIFFERENTIATED
Yu regretted that since the Bali Road Map was adopted, the negotiations of the international community have lasted "with quite slow headway". He called upon "all the members of the international community to show sufficient political sincerity, fulfil their commitments tangibly, not only accept the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities orally but also put it into practice in order to make the conference a success".
India argued similarly while reacting strongly to efforts by the U.S. and the European Union (EU) to use statements made by it in a non-United Nations (UN) forum to attempt to influence the agenda of the climate change negotiations in Copenhagen.
The U.S. and EU are drawing on the declaration signed by India at the Major Economies Forum (MEF) in Egypt, which laid down that 17 countries had agreed to cap the increase in temperatures leading to global warming at 2 degrees Celsius.
The U.S. is now arguing that this will form the basis for the “shared visionö at Copenhagen meet. Shyam Saran, Prime Minister’s special envoy on climate change and leader of the Indian delegation at Bonn, said: “MEF discussions are to take direction, but it is not negotiation. It is strange that the poverty reduction goal from the declaration was not picked, but the 2 degrees Celsius goal was mentioned.ö
In the thick of gloom looming large over the informal negotiations in Bonn, there are few who see glimmers of hope that a global climate deal will be struck in Copenhagen this December.
'A SEA OF BRACKETS'
UN's top climate change official Yvo de Boer did not hide his scepticism on August 14. "At this rate we will not make it," he said, though "a climate deal in Copenhagen this year is an unequivocal requirement to stop climate change from slipping out of control.ö
While there is a general consensus that global warming should be halted, it is doubtful that individual country contributions will really add up to a post-Kyoto pact that expires 2012 but must be agreed before the UN climate change talks kick off in the Danish capital on December 7. The Bonn talks gave little hope of that happening.
The text, which will serve as the basis for negotiations for the successor to 1997 Kyoto Protocol, is currently swamped with about 2,000 bracketed statements pointing to areas of disagreement.
"We seem to be afloat on a sea of brackets," de Boer said. The document has not been significantly slimmed down in weeklong Bonn discussions.
Keen that Copenhagen does not end up in a fiasco, Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the UN Climate Change Secretariat, has repeatedly stressed the need to move much faster to deliver strong outcomes on areas such as adaptation, technology and building skills in developing nations.
Governments need to buckle down and concretely identify how to achieve this. At the Bonn meeting, however, "only limited progress was made, although governments did get down to some practicalities in the areas of adaptation, technology and capacity building,ö said Yvo de Boer
Whilst some advance was made in narrowing down options in the negotiating text, governments also discussed technical issues such as how mid-term (2020) emission reduction pledges of industrialised countries could be translated into legally binding targets as a key component of the Copenhagen deal.
“Industrialised countries need to show a greater level of ambition in agreeing to meaningful mid-term emission reduction targets. The present level of ambition can be raised domestically and by making use of international cooperation,ö the UN’s top climate change official said.ö
“We also need a clear indication of the finance and technology industrialised countries are ready to provide to help developing countries green their economic growth and adapt to the impacts of climate change,ö he added, supporting developing countries viewpoint.
"The question is how all nations can profit from this development. Poorer countries risk being left by the wayside without access to technology and finance. International cooperation needs to provide them with the means to enable them to green their economies and to adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change. In order for that support to be financed, I believe that countries need to be more specific about what they want supported and how," Yvo de Boer said.
In fact, a new study by the transatlantic German Marshall Fund (GMF) points out: "Whether Europe and the United States like it or not, the only global deal developing nations are prepared to consider right now must include commitments from developed nations to immediate emissions mitigation, more financial assistance, and to giving developing nations greater control of global climate institutions."
A major opportunity for all Heads of State and Government of the world to provide clear political guidance to negotiators ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen will be The UN Secretary-General’s Climate Change Summit for world leaders September 22 in New York. The New York meeting will assemble Heads of State and Government from all 192 Parties to the UNFCCC. Its author is Nigel Purvis, president of Climate Advisers and a senior transatlantic fellow at the GMF, a "non-partisan American public policy and grant-making institution dedicated to promoting greater cooperation and understanding" between North America and Europe.
Purvis' paper, released in run-up to the Bonn conference Aug 10-14 on the road to Copenhagen, points out that climate talks are not occurring in a vacuum. Rather, the current round of negotiations builds on 20 years of climate diplomacy and is following a “roadmapö approved by the international community in December 2007 in Bali.
The author notes with satisfaction that the United States and Europe are finally finding common ground on climate change. In sharp contrast to years past, the transatlantic partners now agree -- including at this year’s Group of Eight (G8) Summit in Italy on July 8 -- on the severity of the climate threat, the urgency of solutions, the necessity of action by all major emitters, the responsibility of developed nations to take the lead, the responsibility developed nations have to assist developing nations, and the importance of negotiating new global climate agreements.
Yet, there is also reason for concern, Purvis notes. With only months remaining before the international community hopes to outline the successor to the Kyoto Protocol that expires in 2012, many key nations are only just starting to define their climate change negotiating positions, or signal where they would be willing to make compromises.
While the transatlantic partners have the power to shape a new climate agreement in significant ways, developing nations have made it abundantly clear that they will only accept international responsibility for additional climate action if developed nations satisfy three conditions.
The paper argues that first, developed nations must substantially reduce their own emissions, especially through strong action before 2020. Second, developed nations must finance the incremental cost for developing nations of both adapting to climate change and abating their growth in emissions.
Developing nations account for approximately half of global emissions today, but are projected to contribute 90-97 percent of the growth in global energy-related CO2 emissions through 2030.
Third, developed nations must agree to share with developing nations the management and control of new financial resources mobilized for climate action in the developing world.
While the call for control over financial resources might remind of traditional struggles over foreign aid between donors and developing nations. "But it also reflects a strong sense of entitlement developing nations have to 'compensation' for the damages caused by emissions from developed nations," says Purvis.
In the aftermath of the Bonn conference, work on the negotiating text will continue on September 28 in Bangkok at a two-week negotiating session. Delegates will then assemble for five days of pre-Copenhagen negotiations in Barcelona November 2. A major opportunity for all Heads of State and Government of the world to provide clear political guidance to negotiators ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen will be The UN Secretary-General’s Climate Change Summit for world leaders September 22 in New York. The New York meeting will assemble Heads of State and Government from all 192 Parties to the UNFCCC.
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